PROJECTED DEMAND FOR CUSTODIAL PLACES IN THE JUVENILE ESTATE FROM JANUARY 2004 TO DECEMBER 2006
		2003			2004												2005												2006
		Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	April	May	June	July	Aug	Sept	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	April	May	June	July	Aug	Sept	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	April	May	June	July	Aug	Sept	Oct	Nov	Dec
	Total Under 18 Population - steady state	2812	2807	2624	2664	2724	2760	2769	2809	2805	2867	2840	2819	2827	2807	2624	2664	2724	2760	2769	2809	2805	2867	2840	2819	2827	2807	2624	2664	2724	2760	2769	2809	2805	2867	2840	2819	2827	2807	2624
	Changes - Downward Impact
1	Pilot enhanced ISSP													6	12	18	24	30	30	30	30	30	30	30	30	30	30	30	30	30	30	30	30	30	30	30	30	30	30	30
2	Roll out enhanced ISSP
3	Improve use of current tagging																5	10	15	20	25	30	35	35	35	35	35	35	35	35	35	35	35	35	35	35	35	35	35	35
4	Impact of extension of bail tagging for 17 yr olds				3	7	10	13	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17
5	Tracking Pilot													5	8	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
6	Implement tracking nationwide
7	Improvement of Yot performance - sentenced popn												8	15	23	30	38	45	53	60	68	75	83	90	90	90	90	90	90	90	90	90	90	90	90	90	90	90	90	90
8	Improvement of Yot performance -remand popn												3	7	10	13	16	20	23	26	29	33	36	39	39	39	39	39	39	39	39	39	39	39	39	39	39	39	39	39
9	Establishment of Feltham Remand Team													5	10	15	20	25	30	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32
10	Improve accommodation options																3	6	9	12	15	18	21	24	27	30	33	36	39	39	39	39	39	39	39	39	39	39	39	39
11	Impact of upstream preventive measures		3	5	8	10	13	15	18	20	23	25	28	30	33	35	38	40	43	45	48	50	53	55	58	60	63	65	68	70	73	75	78	80	83	85	88	90	93	95
12	Intensive fostering																7	14	21	28	35	42	49	56	63	70	77	84	91	98	101	101	101	101	101	101	101	101	101	101
13	Impact of ISSP Order
	Others?
	Total Downward Impact	0	3	5	11	17	23	28	35	37	40	42	55	85	112	140	179	219	252	282	310	339	367	390	403	415	428	440	453	462	468	470	473	475	478	480	483	485	488	490
	Changes - Upward Impact
1	ASBO Breaches				10	20	30	40	50	60	70	80	90	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
2	General Election																		15	30	45	30	15
3	Demographic Changes					2	5	7	10	12	15	17	20	22	25	27	29	30	31	32	34	35	36	37	39	40	41	42	44	45	47	48	50	51	53	54	56	57	59	60
4	Removal of persistence requirement for <15 DTOs
5	Others?
	Total Upward Impact	0	0	0	10	22	35	47	60	72	85	97	110	122	125	127	129	130	146	162	179	165	151	137	139	140	141	142	144	145	147	148	150	151	153	154	156	157	159	160
	Net Change Downwards	0	3	5	1	-5	-12	-19	-25	-35	-45	-55	-55	-38	-13	13	51	89	106	120	132	174	216	253	264	275	287	298	309	317	321	322	323	324	325	326	327	328	329	330
	Projected Under 18 Population with Changes	2812	2805	2619	2664	2729	2772	2789	2834	2840	2913	2895	2873	2864	2820	2611	2613	2635	2654	2650	2677	2631	2652	2587	2555	2551	2521	2326	2355	2407	2439	2448	2486	2481	2543	2514	2492	2499	2479	2294
	Actual Under 18 Population	2812	2755	2590	2667	2732	2868	2804	2832	2748	2766	2785	2764	2835	2808	2598	2645
	Target Trend Line	2812	2800	2608	2640	2692	2720	2722	2753	2742	2796	2761	2732	2732	2705	2514	2546	2598	2625	2627	2659	2647	2701	2666	2637	2637	2610	2419	2451	2503	2531
		0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29